Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assembly member and democratic socialist, is on the verge of a major upset in the race to be New York City’s next mayor.
Former New York governor Andrew M. Cuomo conceded the Democratic primary Tuesday night, though the official winner will be announced after ranked-choice calculations are released July 1. Mamdani’s commanding first-round lead over Cuomo, 44 percent to 36 percent, shows the growing influence of an energized, younger left wing of the Democratic Party.
A Washington Post analysis shows Mamdani’s first-round victory was driven by two key factors: First, he successfully maintained – and even broadened – the younger, more liberal coalition that supported Maya Wiley and Kathryn Garcia in 2021. Second, he boosted turnout in areas where he won decisively.
Cuomo tended to perform best in districts that had favored Mayor Eric Adams four years before, particularly in Queens, southeastern Brooklyn and the Bronx. In contrast, Mamdani drew his strongest support from areas that had backed Wiley and Garcia, namely Lower Manhattan (extending into Midtown), northern Brooklyn and western Queens.
What stands out in results is Mamdani’s success in expanding that coalition. He made inroads into areas previously won by Andrew Yang in 2021, such as parts of Queens, like Flushing, and southern Brooklyn, such as Sunset Park and Bensonhurst. He also cut into Cuomo’s results in northern Manhattan, particularly in Harlem, while remaining competitive throughout the Upper West Side and even parts of the Upper East Side. Mamdani also managed to narrow the margins in some of Cuomo’s best areas, such as Canarsie in southeastern Brooklyn. Cuomo received 10 fewer percentage points than Adams had in the same area four years before.
Mamdani benefited from a second, equally important factor: Turnout. In districts won by Cuomo, turnout remained relatively consistent with 2021 levels. But in districts where Mamdani won a majority of the vote, turnout surged by an average of 20 percent. In areas where he earned an overwhelming majority, turnout jumped more than 40 percent compared with 2021.
As Democrats consider whether to prioritize persuasion or turnout to win elections, Mamdani’s victory suggests that, at least in an intraparty primary, these strategies are not mutually exclusive.
The winner at the end of the ranked-choice process will go on to the November general election to face off against Adams, who is running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Cuomo left open the prospect of running in the general election as an independent.
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Source: New York City Board of Elections. Results as of 8 a.m. with 96 percent of scanners reporting.
